At the beginning of the season, I made a few predictions based on a numerical analysis of pre-2023 data. As promised, I will re-visit these predictions to see how I did.
Prediction 1: The Dallas Defense will regress.
Specifically, I said that Dallas would be “outside the top 10 in Points per Drive and Drive Success Rate.”
Well, I was half right. By Drive Success Rate, Dallas dropped from the 5th best defense in 2022 to 16th in 2023 (68.1% to 70.8% DSR allowed), which means they let opponents move the chains a lot more often against them this year.