Heading into the divisional round playoff game, the Colts are underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs with the current point spread at about +5-1/2. For you non-bettors, that means the Colts are expected to lose by 5.5 points.
But what does that say about the chance of a Colts win? Can that be converted into a probability? Clearly it’s less than a 50% chance, but how much less? If you listen to Chiefs fans, it’s about 0%, but I think I’ll attempt a more scientific approach rather than simply trusting the opinions of Camaro-heads.