The Colts' playoff hopes seem dismal. Fivethirtyeight.com, however, has them at a respectable 40%; New York Times has the Colts at 31%.
With Buffalo's shocking 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, however, the Colts would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC East if they had beaten Baltimore (13-point lead entering the fourth quarter) and Tennessee (3-point lead entering fourth). NFL teams are 97-21, an .822 winning percentage, when leading at the end of three quarters.
Instead of being 4-5, the Colts would be 6-3, with Tennessee and Baltimore joining Las Vegas and Buffalo at 5-3.