This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season-long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
RESULTS
Like the Colts, my model faded in week 16. After the Vegas lines settled, the only upset pick I had was TEN over GB by 1 and I was only off by 27 points. So, dropping another game to Vegas puts me 3 games back and out of reach for the season title.