This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season-long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
RESULTS
The model continues its strong performance, picking 5 of 6 winners straight up in Wildcard Weekend. It correctly forecasted the Browns to upset the Steelers and so gained a game on Vegas for the season, sitting 2 games back at a 66.