One of the ideas to gain traction during the age of analytics is that trading down in the NFL draft is the optimal strategy. The ideas behind it are simple. The NFL Draft is a lottery. Historically, teams aren't any better than others when making selections and teams over estimate their own ability to scout players. Teams place more value on high first round picks than they should, which leads to a greater haul than an efficient market should allow. As a result, the goal should be to get as many lottery tickets as possible, and as a bonus they can gain greater value for what they give up.
The Film Room: Julio Jones
