The Houston Rockets took another step forward during the regular season, grabbing the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference despite losing center Dwight Howard for most of the season thanks to the play of MVP candidate James Harden.
The Dallas Mavericks started the season on fire and looked like they got even better when they traded for Rajon Rondo, but the team has struggled mightily since the acquisition. They've gone 11-10 during the last month and a half of the season, but looked like they started to figure things out by winning four of their last five games
Houston won the season series between these two teams 3-1.
Projected Starting Lineups
(2) Houston Rockets (56-26)
G Jason Terry – 7.0 ppg, 1.9 apg
G James Harden – 27.4 ppg, 7.0 apg, 5.7 rpg
F Trevor Ariza – 12.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg
F Terrance Jones – 11.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg
C Dwight Howard – 15.8 ppg, 10.5 rpg
(7) Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
G Rajon Rondo –9.3 ppg, 6.5 apg
G Monta Ellis – 18.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg
F Chandler Parsons – 15.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg
F Dirk Nowitzki – 17.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg
C Tyson Chandler – 10.3 ppg, 11.5 rpg
What to watch for:
Can James Harden get to the free throw line at the same rate he did in the regular season?
Harden can score from anywhere on the court, but he turned himself into an MVP frontrunner by getting to the foul line more than anyone else in the NBA. He ran into problems in the postseason last year when he couldn't get the same calls he got during the regular season, and that really limited his effectiveness.
Monta Ellis isn't a great defender, so Dallas will probably rely on Rajon Rondo or Chandler Parsons to guard Harden. Rondo is quick enough to be effective in that role, but doesn't have the height to truly bother Harden, while Parsons is the exact opposite. If Dallas can find someone who can guard Harden without fouling, they'll win this series.
How will injuries affect Houston?
The Rockets will be playing this series without starting point guard Patrick Beverley (wrist) or sixth man Donatas Montijunas (ACL), which has significantly cut into their depth. Coaches usually shorten their rotations during the postseason, but the injuries don't give Houston a lot of options if someone is in foul trouble or isn't playing well.
Prediction: Mavericks win 4-3
Houston's up-tempo style of play is excellent during the regular season, but they've had a lot of problems with it in the postseason. Many forget that Dallas pushed the champion Spurs to seven games in their first round series last year, and the Mavericks have only gotten better. Every game will be close, but Dallas is healthier and better suited for the postseason.
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