Only Spring Training, But Cristian Javier’s Velocity Is Encouraging

I’ve written about Cristian Javier’s struggles ad nauseam in 2023, including his velocity issues and release point troubles. His performance to start last season is also why I wouldn’t concentrate largely on ERA regarding analysis. Through his first 12 starts, Javier posted a 2.84 ERA in 69 ²⁄₃ innings. That is generally regarded as pretty good, at least among the general public. But there were some red flags embedded in Javier’s numbers through early June, whether it be his FIP (3.60), xFIP (4.25), declining velocity, and a sinking strikeout rate. Take your pick and it was clear to see that Javier’s performance would likely decline as the season progressed.