We are headed into the final stretch of the season. Let’s examine what fangraphs’ projections say about the remaining 21 games of the season.
Fangraphs Playoff Projection
We will focus on the Fangraphs projection model. The Astros have 97.1% playoff odds and 96% probability of winning the AL-West. (The 1.7% difference equals the odds of winning a Wild Card spot.) The Mariners are in a much worse position with 7.9% playoff odds and 3.1% probability of winning the AL-West. The Astros are projected to win 88 games. If you glance over the division projections generally, you will see that all of the division leaders in the AL and NL have playoff odds higher than 97%.