A Quick Look At One-Run Games And Issues Against Winning Teams

Photo by Logan Riely/Getty ImagesEntering this season, I predicted the Astros would finish 95-67 and win the AL West for the fourth consecutive year. I mean, with this organization’s run of success since 2017, it felt like a reasonable projection. In 2023, Houston finished with a 90-72 record even with some regression in the mix. Accounting for potential bounceback from certain players, an extra five wins didn’t seem like a stretch, at least at the time.

But instead of a bounceback, the Astros have sunk lower than anticipated. Are they better than their 27-34 record? It depends. On the one hand, the record is what it is. The results matter. But with only a -4 run differential, their record…