There is a school of thought in football that the results of games decided by one score are essentially random. Good teams blow out other teams, winning by more than one possession, but teams that win a lot of close games one year tend to regress the next. Likewise, teams that lose a lot of close games one year tend to revert towards the mean as well.
Nobody studies this more closely than Justis Mosqueda, who breaks down each year’s close game records (which he defines as a winning margin of seven points or less) to see who is in line for a big jump or a big drop in the following season.