Winning the offseason can be a fallacy.
I know that’s not something that you want to hear if your team is fresh off signing one of the biggest names of the 2020 free agency period, but from 2006 to 2019, there was only one team that got more value out of their new players in their first season (according to PFF WAR) than they produced for their previous team a season earlier. That team was the Baltimore Ravens.
We often overrate the kind of impact that free agent signings will have with their new teams, especially in their first season as they adjust to a new situation and system.