Fantasy Football drafts are a combination of calculating maximum points with each pick and the expected depth of the various positions. To help guide us I used the Pro Football Reference database and adapted it to Yahoo’s new default half-point PPR scoring. Since 2012, I calculated the points on average for the top-scoring player at each position, as well as the fifth, 10th, 15th, 20th and so on.
It turns out that owners early this draft season are not acting entirely rational when they’re on the clock. They are leaving the higher probability of more wide receiver points on the table to venture too deeply into the running back pool for players who can only return the value if they beat ADP.