Unless you’re an actuary, your eyes may glaze over when discussing risk avoidance and I get it. It’s boring. It’s also vital to the success of a draft. Selections are risk profiles, and the goal is to both avoid risk while maximizing potential return. It’s just as important to identify the potential mitigating factors to success as it is to identify the things that could make a player potentially successful. Considering the importance of adding a dynamic pass catcher for the Green Bay Packers, using this information can help us determine which players are most likely to succeed.