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Punch Shot: Winner, biggest bummer and how Tiger will fare at PGA

The 104th PGA Championship begins Thursday at Southern Hills. The GolfChannel.com writers weigh in with their predictions.

Pick to win:

Rex Hoggard: Justin Thomas. This version of Southern Hills, which is an airier alternative to the course the world’s best played during the 2007 PGA Championship, will be a second-shot and scrambling test and only one player fits that bill statistically. JT is fifth this season in strokes gained: approach and scrambling.

Ryan Lavner: Jordan Spieth. Playing just a few hours from home, at a demanding course that accentuates his unique gifts, with his confidence as high as it’s been in years – yeah, it’s time for Spieth to finish the Slam.