Back to the Golden State Warriors Newsfeed

The (In)Exact Science of Predicting Players' Careers

Has Nate Silver of FiveThirty Eight created the algorithm to end all algorithms?

Well, has he? Silver purports to have constructed a brand-spanking new model christened CARMELO that predicts (with a confidence interval of 80%) an NBA player's WAR in the coming years. It's worth your time to follow that link over to FiveThirtyEight, and spend the next ten or so minutes perusing Silver's breakdown of his methodologies. The watered down, fast-pace (consumer friendly!) version:

  1. Start with a big pot. Heat to 350 degrees fahrenheit. Throw in the vitals: height, weight, draft position.