The Binion Index had a rough week 8, hitting 42% ATS with a mean error of 14.7 points. We were hurt by Vegas being ahead of us on some of the teams whose 2021 performance has most differed from the preseason projections. The projections get further phased out this week.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.