The Binion Index improved slightly from the opening weeks of the season but largely continued its early season projection struggles in Week 3. Going into Week 4, the balance between in season ratings and preseason ratings shifts significantly, and I anticipate that will improve performance going ahead.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.