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Michigan is showing signs of wear and tear, but with a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the Wolverines are still a six-point projected home favorite over Ohio State, according to the updated SP+ rankings.
Michigan has ranked first in SP+ since Week 5 and held steady after Week 12's results, but to the extent that trends matter, an interesting one has emerged: The Wolverines have underachieved against SP+ projections by 6.3 points per game over the past three weeks, while the Buckeyes have overachieved by 4.0 PPG in that same span and haven't actually underachieved against projections since Week 2.