As of 11am, October 4th, the National Hurricane Center has begun official advisories on Tropical Depression 16— the current projected path looks like this:
At this time, areas north of Tampa, Florida westward through Mobile, Alabama are within the cone of the probable path of the storm.
As with any forecast, the NHC provides reliable, timely updates that supercede any other thoughts or prognostications here or anywhere else.
Having said that, I'll share with you some of my thoughts as an industry meteorologist and Ph.D.
One of the first things that strikes me about this forecast is that it is the first official advisory *and* it predicts TD16 to become Hurricane Nate in less than 4 days.