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Bold BPI predictions: Duke won't be a No. 1-seed in 2017-18

The 2017-18 college basketball season begins Friday, our preseason Basketball Power Index (BPI) rankings and projections debuted last week (and can be explored at espn.com/bpi), and now it's time to further dissect the numbers and make some bold predictions.

It's important to remember that the BPI and all of its derivative metrics offer probability of outcomes, never predicting things with 100 percent certainty. As fans, we're seldom rational, so let's ignore the uncertainties for now and dive in:

Duke will not be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament

At first glance, who would pick against top-ranked, mega-talented Duke ending up on the 1-line on Selection Sunday?