This might be the most one-sided matchup we’ve seen since the Wild Card games came into existence. The six-win difference between the Yankees and Twins is one of the largest we’ve seen since the new playoff format started in 2012, and advanced metrics suggest it’s not even that close. According to pythagorean win-loss expectancies, the Yankees should have been a 100-win team this year, while the Twins slightly over-performed. Baseball Prospectus’ third-order win percentages create an even bigger gap, with the Yankees a 105-win team and the Twins a hair over .500.
Looking closer, it’s tough to find any advantage for Minnesota.