We’ve officially reached the home stretch of the Detroit Lions’ regular season. Sitting with a franchise record of 11-1 through 13 weeks, you’d think the vibes in Detroit would be immaculate. But a string of injuries and an impossibly tight division has some feeling a little nervous heading into the Lions’ final five games. It certainly doesn’t help that their remaining schedule is widely considered one of the toughest in the league (third-toughest by overall record and DVOA—although the Packers and Vikings both have just as tough of a schedule).
But let’s look at what some of the probability NFL playoff models have to say about the Lions’ chances of making the playoffs, winning the division, and securing the NFC’s top seed and a first-round bye.