An NFL team is down by 14 points in the fourth quarter, and it scores a touchdown to pull the game within 8. The consensus says the team should kick the extra point, right? Not so fast.
In analytics circles, attempting a 2-point conversion when down 8 points late in the game has long been discussed as a slam-dunk decision that NFL coaches should make. Recently, it has become a choice that some coaches actually do make.
Between 2000-17, there were only two instances in which a team was down 14 points, scored a touchdown to cut the deficit to 8, and went for 2 on purpose (excluding aborted PAT attempts).