A few times a year, I have to reread The Ten Laws of Hockey Analytics just to remind myself that managing a hockey season is a lot like herding cats. You can do it, but don’t expect to get from point A to point Z in a straight line.
Case in point: Money Puck.com’s expected goal model had the Washington Capitals beating Dallas 2.72 to 2.36, and then the Stars beating the Winnipeg Jets 2.63 to 2.47. Now, maybe you want to dispute the details of the model, and in the end it’s the goals that count, but what I see here is a team that put itself in a position to win against two high caliber playoff teams.