Yesterday’s Dallas - Green Bay playoff game, which the Packers won on a game-ending field goal 34-31 is an instant classic. Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead half-way through the second quarter, and with 3:16 left in the third quarter, holding a 28-13 lead, had a 98% probability of winning the game. Yet Dallas clawed back to tie it at 28 all, and in the last 1:38 of the game, the win probability chart swung wildly back and forth.
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This is offered as an illustration of how much difference a single play can have on a football game.