Back in late September last year, when the Cowboys were 1-2, I took a look at the win probabilities for all remaining Cowboys games as calculated by the ELO ratings published on fivethirtyeight.com.
The results were surprising, as the ELO win probabilities at the time predicted a 10-win season for the Cowboys. This prediction did not sit well with parts of the fan base at the time, and were summarily ridiculed.
- “ELO....extremely long odds?”
- “You sure that shouldn’t be Elol ratings?”
- “If this algorithm was piss tested, its urine would have stems and seeds in it.