Do the Cowboys have a prayer of winning this Sunday? Things certainly don't look good on paper, where all you have to do is look at the monster numbers Denver is posting to see that Dallas is at a clear disadvantage. Fortunately for the Cowboys, the game won't be played on paper, and public opinion is flawed all the time - just look at the 3-2 Cleveland Browns, left for dead after the Trent Richardson trade.
The Cowboys are ranked 27th against the pass, giving up 304.5 yards per game through the air. That wouldn't bode well if they were coming up against an average quarterback, but as we've heard twelve thousand times since last weekend, Peyton Manning is anything but average. Let's assess where the individual members of the Cowboys secondary are right now, and talk about what they can do to contribute.
Cornerbacks:
Morris Claiborne: There were lofty expectations for Claiborne after a solid rookie year, but he's regressed significantly so far this season. There have been a variety of excuses made for Claiborne's lackluster play - he's struggled with adapting to zone defense, he's better in man-to-man coverage, he should have been brought along more slowly, etc. etc. - but this is a player taken with the sixth pick in the NFL draft. Claiborne has given up big plays in every game the Cowboys have played so far this season, and opposing quarterbacks are taking notice. Philip Rivers spent all day last Sunday picking on Claiborne, and he was unable to do anything about it - Rivers completed 6/7 passes when targeting Claiborne's receiver.
A video addict like Peyton Manning is going to be well aware of Claiborne's weaknesses - he hasn't been able to press receivers at the line, and his positional awareness has been poor. If he doesn't step his game up on Sunday and start making better decisions, he'll be in for a very long afternoon.
Brandon Carr: - Carr makes big plays (just look at his pick-six against Eli Manning in week 1), but he's an inconsistent player who goes for a home run hit too often instead of wrapping up. The Giants and the Chiefs both gained yards after contact because Carr tried to lay a huge hit on someone but failed to bring them down. These mistakes didn't cost Dallas the game against New York, and there were too many culprits against Kansas City to lay the blame squarely on Carr, but the room for error against the Broncos will be nonexistent.
Carr will get beat on shorter routes sometimes - that's just the kind of player he is. If he can wrap up and stop receivers from adding yards after the catch, he's fast enough that he'll be fine on Sunday. If he can sniff out turnovers as well, that's found money for Dallas.
Safeties:
JJ Wilcox: The Cowboys' rookie strong safety took over for 10-year veteran Will Allen in week 3, starting against the Rams and the Chargers. Wilcox is a physical player who had an excellent game against St. Louis but disappeared against San Diego. Wilcox will have to set the tone and make sure Denver's receivers don't feel comfortable when making plays over the middle.
Wilcox has fantastic potential, but being thrown right into the fire against this Denver team might be too much too soon. While Wilcox will be the primary option at strong safety, look for Will Allen to rotate in frequently if Denver starts rolling.
Barry Church: Church is a quick, technical free safety with good reaction time. He's good at reading quarterbacks, and he's been the most consistent player in the Cowboys' secondary so far this year, with 27 tackles to date (second on the team behind Sean Lee). Church will play a huge role in containing the Denver passing attack, but he'll have to provide cover for Claiborne frequently if Manning picks on him as much as Philip Rivers did. Ideally, Church won't have to clean up other people's messes, and if he can focus on his own game the Cowboys secondary will be drastically better off.
Manning has no shortage of dangerous targets. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker are all capable of hurting Dallas, but the Cowboys secondary has enough talent and potential to keep Denver from dropping 50 points on them. The Dallas secondary will have to improve their mental focus and technique if they want to limit the damage Peyton Manning does through the air, but keeping Manning quiet is just too tall an order for this group. Look for Denver to do damage with their passing game, but not at the same level they've reached during the first four weeks.
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