Sheffield United and Burnley are 11 points from Premier League safety and look doomed with just 12 matches of the season remaining.
It looks like one from six, with eight points separating 18th-placed Luton and the five teams immediately above them - Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Everton, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.
But it's complicated...
Both Everton and Forest face anxious waits after being charged in January for alleged breaches in their accounts for 2022-23.
Forest's case will be heard on Thursday 7 and Friday 8 March.
If they are found to have breached rules they face a points deduction.