Nolan Arenado has been hitting second in the majority of the Rockies’ Spring Training games, and that has brought lineup optimization back into focus. This is a topic I used to think about a lot even though, as I wrote back in 2015, batting order “doesn’t really matter.” A fully optimized lineup maxes out at a dozen or so runs and maybe two wins over the course of a season (if everything breaks just right). The commonly accepted optimal lineup looks like this:
- Highest OBP
- Best hitter
- Fifth best hitter
- Best hitter with power
- Best hitter after 1, 2, and 4
- Best remaining base stealer
- Singles hitter
- Pitcher
- Singles hitter
This is based on maximizing plate appearances with runners on base for the team’s best hitters.