How exactly do you project the future of a Comeback Player of the Year, much less a 35-year-old that was out of the league for seven years?
It’s hard to even compare Daniel Bard’s comeback to anybody else, so any projection model can be in uncharted territory when evaluating the reborn reliever. He shattered expectations in 2020, taking over Colorado’s closer duties after having his jersey number taped on during Summer Camp. Now that Bard has ‘established’ himself again and collected a solid paycheck, the expectations have risen—but the future outlook remains complicated.
A common method of player projection is a classic “regression to the mean” analysis, a practice that emphasizes a return to average when projecting future performance.