PECOTA predicts a grim 2021 for Rockies

Last Tuesday, in an attempt to explain to media the details of the Nolan Arenado trade, Dick Monfort said he remains positive about the 2021 Rockies: “I truly in my heart believe that this is a very talented team that underperformed the last couple of years. I’m not even going to count last year because it was a difficult year, but I think we underperformed.”

That comment was met with derision by baseball writers and Rockies fans alike. One week later, PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), the projection system of Baseball Prospectus, weighed in on the Rockies’ 2021 changes as of February 7. To be blunt, PECOTA is considerably less hopeful than Dick Monfort,…