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Making sense of Jose Ramirez’s PECOTA projections

I wrote the other day about some snap and somewhat absurd reactions to Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections for the Cleveland Indians. I stand by my feelings on Michael Martinez, by the way. One thing I didn’t mention, and one commenter on the story brought up, was how poorly the projections see Jose Ramirez doing in 2017.

According to PECOTA, he is projected to hit .276/.324/.410. This after a season where he hit .312/.363/.462 and was generally awesome. After hemming and hawing and grumbling to myself like a madman so much that my boss told me to go home early on Wednesday, I think I’ve, at least in part, made peace with this disappointing projection.