The Reds currently have a 0.5% chance of winning the NL Central according to Fangraphs Playoff Odds. They are 7.0 games behind the consensus favorite St. Louis Cardinals. While being 7.0 games back on May 5th is certainly not insurmountable, it is highly unlikely. Sure, the Brewers had a 6.5 game lead on July 1st of last season, but the Cardinals aren’t the Brewers, and the Reds certainly aren’t the Cardinals team that was chasing the Brewers last season.
The Reds odds of getting a wild card spot are still only 2.2%, but attaining one of those two spots is much more possible than winning the division.