Projections in baseball are a funny thing. For the most part, they’re a crapshoot. As hard as it is to hit a round ball with a round bat, it’s even harder for us to try to predict just how successful a given player will be at hitting a round ball with a round bat, not to mention how well that guy will play in the field and on the basepaths. Today’s analysts are spoiled by technology that attempts to measure quality of contact and plate discipline, facets of the game we used to judge by the “eye test”. Now computers can tell us how a player will most likely perform over 162 games, taking into account that player’s history, all of the data available to us, and trends like aging and progression curves.