Last year the Cincinnati Reds tried to catch the Pittsburgh Pirates for fourth place in the National League Central. Right now, it looks like 2018 will be a repeat of that show. The Pirates look like a potentially stronger team even with the loss of Andrew McCutchen, negating a modest improvement for the Reds.
Creating an exact win-loss number is always difficult. Taking a less than scientific approach, the bullpen is a wash and the offense is likely on too. The starting rotation’s health should be worth one win and Luis Castillo being in the rotation for a full season should be worth two more after coming over in the Dan Straily deal last off-season.