In one of the most insane baseball series we might ever see, it’s hard to pick the biggest moments. We can, however, use Win Probability Added (WPA) to narrow down which plays actually mattered the most.
WPA calculates the percentage change in win expectancy from on a play-to-play basis. For example, if the win expectancy at a given moment is 50 percent and Addison Russell’s clutch hit improves the Cubs’ chances to 60 percent, the WPA of the hit would be 0.1 (i.e., 10 percent increase in WE).
Here are the Cubs’ top five highest WPA plays of the NLDS:
5) 11.