As we covered earlier in the week, PECOTA hates the Cubs. Maybe “hate” is a little strong, but c’mon, only 91 wins? As Brendan Miller pointed out in that linked piece, even the best projection systems have their shortcomings. And while PECOTA is better than most, it’s still limited by its inability to take into account all manner of unquantifiable factors.
As such, I think the Cubs — despite having boatloads of talent and a World Series title to their credit — might be hurt more than other teams. This is probably just my rampant homerism talking, so have the kosher salt handy, but I truly believe chemistry and all that other psycho-babble hoo-ha contribute very heavily to their success.