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Quantifying Hope: Cubs Turn 1.7 Percent Chance into NLDS Win

When Dexter Fowler struck out looking to end the top of the 8th, his team possessed only a 2.1 percent chance of heading back to Chicago victorious. By the time Conor Gillaspie collected his 57th hit of the series to lead off the bottom of that inning, those odds had dropped to 1.7 percent. Even after Gregor Blanco G’ed IDP, the Giants were well in control. In fact, they would have won 97 1/2 times had the two teams played 100 separate 9th innings.

Of course, they only played one and you probably know by now that it didn’t go according to statistical probability.