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PECOTA Forecasts Drew Smyly as Near Perfect Cole Hamels Replacement for Rangers

One piece of unfinished offseason work is Theo Epstein completing the Drew Smyly deal with the Texas Rangers after the November trade called for an exchange of players to be named later. Presumably the Cubs will get the better PTBNL for giving up a 40-man roster piece in Smyly and saving the Rangers a $6 million buyout of Cole Hamels’ option year.

We don’t know when the PTBNLs will be decided. If the Cubs hope to get a Jesse Chavez-style reliever back, a mid-year completion would make sense. This might also require Smyly to have at least a solid first half as a starter.