Once again, an analytical system projects an ugly season for the Kansas City Royals, which has become an annual event. Even through Kansas City's trip to the World Series in 2014 and their championship in 2015, the projections have been right in the same range, so whatever is being missed is being missed consistently.
But the numbers that were the most surprising from Baseball Prospectus this year were the metrics behind the Chicago Cubs' forecast of 90 wins. Chicago won 103 games in the regular season last year, and at least one statistical model suggests the Cubs played well enough to win 107 games.