We’re inundated with various projection models during the offseason, each with a unique spin on forecasting players. It figures that some are going to be better than others. ZiPS and Steamer, for example, are featured on FanGraphs and updated as the season rolls along. But how good are these projections models? Did they predict last season with a good degree of accuracy?
I went back and charted qualified Cubs players’ 2016 ZiPS and Steamer weighted on base average (wOBA) projections against their actual 2016 stats.
| ZiPS/Steamer vs. Reality (wOBA) | ||||
| Player | ZiPS | Steamer | ZiPS/Steamer Average | 2016 Stats |
| Willson Contreras | 0. | |||