The arbitration process is usually pretty straightforward, but the shortened season and stunted financial environment have created a great deal more uncertainty than usual. The biggest issue is that how player performance will be weighted, particularly with counting stats, since Major League Baseball and the players union apparently don’t have an agreement on that matter. It’s easy to imagine teams highlighting a player’s low home run and RBI totals while at the same time downplaying his high average and OBP as functions of a small sample.
We’re likely to see at least two clear trends this winter, the first of which is the rise of the file-and-trial approach in which teams present a lower bottom-line salary figure and essentially force a hearing.