The past is a pretty good predictor of the future, which is why a lot of models of future performance are based upon past performance. Earlier this season, we used past shooting (and saving) performances to predict how many goals the Calgary Flames should be expected to score (or allow).
As you'd expect, a lot of the team's issues can be heaped upon a handful of players when performance is analyzed through this lens.
Let's dive in!
THE METHOD
We took a look at this back in January. To quote, us, back then:
Admittedly, the Expected Goals model I am using here is simplistic.