There is a short list of factors that can help determine if an NHL UFA signing is going to be a bad bet:
- The player’s perceived value is strongly based on reputation and intangibles.
- He’s coming off a really good playoff run.
- He’s over 30 years old.
- He’s considered a top UFA target.
- He’s asking for the biggest contract of his career.
Bonus: the words “big body” are often used to describe the player.
In isolation, some of these issues aren’t a guarantee of an overpayment, but put them together and you’re betting big money on a long shot.