Sequencing, variance, and evaluating Cal men’s basketball

Hey, so all season long we’ve had people openly speculating about whether or not this particular Cal basketball would be historic. Sadly, any history making wasn’t ever going to be for a positive achievement. But as it turns out, this team has done at least one thing that is unprecedented:

Cal is the first team this century to win its last 3 conference games after going 0-fer to that point.

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 8, 2019 Which gets at the heart of trying to evaluate this season. Over the last 18 games, Cal men’s basketball first had to play through an 0-15 stretch that led to a tide of derision, then went on an improbable 3 game winning streak that maybe has changed some minds?

Or…