Expectations for BYU are fairly low heading into the season. BYU was picked to finish 11th in the Big 12 Preseason Poll and betting win totals fall anywhere between 4.5 to 5.5 wins. My read is that BYU fans have modest expectations, with most hoping for bowl eligibility in this first Big 12 season.
To get to six regular season wins there’s some “swing” games BYU has to have — i.e., games that could be the difference between a 4-win team and a 6+ win season. BYU doesn’t necessarily have to win all three of these, but I think they’ll need to win at least two and they could determine what the season looks like.