Less than two years ago, the conventional wisdom told us that President Donald Trump had transformed the political map: GOP strongholds in the South had joined with gains in the Rust Belt (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania) and upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Iowa), giving Republicans an electoral lock for years to come.
Then came 20 months of the Trump presidency. Senate races in Ohio and Pennsylvania, once thought to be pick-up chances for Republicans, are not really in play. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., appears not to be in danger. Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin looks safe as well.