Progression to the mean is rarely so stark. After spending most of the 2020-21 season playing like a solid mid-table Premier League team on paper, but rarely translating that quality into points, Brighton has started 2021-22 in fine form. The Seagulls finished 16th in the league last season despite an expected goal (xG) differential that ranked fifth; they turned 1.5 xG per match into only 1.05 goals, and their 1.03 points per close match average -- matches that finish within either zero or one goal -- ranked 17th.
This season, Graham Potter's squad has already taken 10 points -- three wins and a draw -- from four close matches.