One of the most common refrains coming out of Bills Mafia the last few weeks has been “why do the Buffalo Bills rank so highly in these advanced metrics on offense when my eyes are telling me that they’re struggling?”
In short, it’s because we’re assigning the wrong qualitative message to the metrics.
Success rate and EPA/play are much closer to being measurements of how effective a team is moving the ball than they are of how good an offense is (DVOA is also built on a foundation of success rate prior to any adjustments for things like opponent and league-wide success in that same situation).